November 2007
Global warming ... It's all about over-consumption!
This and other issues...
A message from Sam
Global warming and climate change
During the past month
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Now here's a thought!
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As we celebrate this Thanksgiving Day with family and friends, let's be ever mindful of God's many blessings in our lives. But let us also not take these many blessings for granted.
At no other time in history have we been faced with such enormous, emerging environmental crises. Evidence of global warming has been spelled out by respected scientists and environmental organizations. Warnings about climate change fueled by over-consumption and neglect are being sounded by economists, scientists, and politicians.
Articles outlining forecasting further environmental degredation have appeared in scientific journals of government -- warnings that our oceans are dying, that the ice shelves are melting, and that we are setting ourselves up for the most massive and devastating market failure humanity has ever seen.
So we recycle our garbage. We vote greener. We buy sleek, new hybrid cars and fill our houses with energy-efficient light bulbs. And we put our money and faith in the brave and ingenious technologies that will rescue us from the coming storm.
But it won't be enough. Because this is not, fundamentally, a technological problem. Nor is it, fundamentally, a political problem. This is a problem of appetites, and of narcissism, and of self-deceit. The planet is breaking, and it is breaking under the weight of our hunger for more. To reform the world, we must first reform ourselves.
And that brings us to making simple changes in lifestyle.
We must each do our part to protect the environment so that our children, grandchildren and great grandchildren will have and improved and protected environment to enjoy.
Upcoming City Council Meetings:
Monday, November 19th, 7:30 p.m., City Council Legislative Meeting
Monday, November 26th, 7:00 p.m., City Council Public Hearing
(The Thursday prior to each meeting an agenda will be posted on the City of Annapolis website.)
Global Warming and Climate Change
One of the most hotly debated topics on Earth is the issue of climate change, and the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) data centers are central to answering some of the most pressing global change questions that remain unresolved. The National Climatic Data Center contains the instrumental records that can precisely define the nature of climatic fluctuations at time scales of a up to a century. Among the diverse kinds of data platforms whose data contribute to NCDC's armamentarium are: Ships, buoys, weather stations, balloons, satellites, and aircraft. The National Oceanographic Data Center contains the subsurface data which reveal the ways that heat is distributed and redistributed over the planet. Knowing how these systems are changing and how they have changed in the past is crucial to understanding how they will change in the future. And, for climate information that extends from hundreds to thousands of years, the paleoclimatology program, also at the National Climatic Data Center, helps to provide longer term perspectives.
Internationally, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), under the auspices of the United Nations (UN), World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), is the most senior and authoritative body providing scientific advice to global policy makers. The IPCC met in full session in 1990, 1995 and in 2001. They address issues such as the buildup of greenhouse gases, evidence, attribution, and prediction of climate change, impacts of climate change, and policy options.
Listed below are a number of questions commonly addressed to climate scientists, and brief replies (based on IPCC reports and other research) in common, understandable language. This list will be periodically updated, as new scientific evidence comes to light.
What is the greenhouse effect, and is it affecting our climate?
The greenhouse effect is unquestionably real and helps to regulate the temperature of our planet. It is essential for life on Earth and is one of Earth's natural processes. It is the result of heat absorption by certain gases in the atmosphere (called greenhouse gases because they effectively 'trap' heat in the lower atmosphere) and re-radiation downward of some of that heat. Water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas, followed by carbon dioxide and other trace gases. Without a natural greenhouse effect, the temperature of the Earth would be about zero degrees F (-18°C) instead of its present 57°F (14°C). So, the concern is not with the fact that we have a greenhouse effect, but whether human activities are leading to an enhancement of the greenhouse effect.
Are greenhouse gases increasing?
Human activity has been increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (mostly carbon dioxide from combustion of coal, oil, and gas; plus a few other trace gases). There is no scientific debate on this point. Pre-industrial levels of carbon dioxide (prior to the start of the Industrial Revolution) were about 280 parts per million by volume (ppmv), and current levels are about 370 ppmv. The concentration of CO2 in our atmosphere today, has not been exceeded in the last 420,000 years, and likely not in the last 20 million years. According to the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), by the end of the 21st century, we could expect to see carbon dioxide concentrations of anywhere from 490 to 1260 ppm (75-350% above the pre-industrial concentration).
Is the climate warming?
Yes. Global surface temperatures have increased about 0.6°C (plus or minus 0.2°C) since the late-19th century, and about 0.4°F (0.2 to 0.3°C) over the past 25 years (the period with the most credible data). The warming has not been globally uniform. Some areas (including parts of the southeastern U.S.) have, in fact, cooled over the last century. The recent warmth has been greatest over North America and Eurasia between 40 and 70°N. Warming, assisted by the record El Niño of 1997-1998, has continued right up to the present, with 2001 being the second warmest year on record after 1998.
Linear trends can vary greatly depending on the period over which they are computed. Temperature trends in the lower troposphere (between about 2,500 and 26,000 ft.) from 1979 to the present, the period for which Satellite Microwave Sounding Unit data exist, are small and may be unrepresentative of longer term trends and trends closer to the surface. Furthermore, there are small unresolved differences between radiosonde and satellite observations of tropospheric temperatures, though both data sources show slight warming trends. If one calculates trends beginning with the commencement of radiosonde data in the 1950s, there is a slight greater warming in the record due to increases in the 1970s. There are statistical and physical reasons (e.g., short record lengths, the transient differential effects of volcanic activity and El Niño, and boundary layer effects) for expecting differences between recent trends in surface and lower tropospheric temperatures, but the exact causes for the differences are still under investigation (see National Research Council report "Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change").
An enhanced greenhouse effect is expected to cause cooling in higher parts of the atmosphere because the increased "blanketing" effect in the lower atmosphere holds in more heat, allowing less to reach the upper atmosphere. Cooling of the lower stratosphere (about 49,000-79,500ft.) since 1979 is shown by both satellite Microwave Sounding Unit and radiosonde data, but is larger in the radiosonde data.
Relatively cool surface and tropospheric temperatures, and a relatively warmer lower stratosphere, were observed in 1992 and 1993, following the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. The warming reappeared in 1994. A dramatic global warming, at least partly associated with the record El Niño, took place in 1998. This warming episode is reflected from the surface to the top of the troposphere.
There has been a general, but not global, tendency toward reduced diurnal temperature range (DTR), (the difference between high and low daily temperatures) over about 50% of the global land mass since the middle of the 20th century. Cloud cover has increased in many of the areas with reduced diurnal temperature range. The overall positive trend for maximum daily temperature over the period of study (1950-93) is 0.1°C/decade, whereas the trend for daily minimum temperatures is 0.2°C/decade. This results in a negative trend in the DTR of -0.1°C/decade.
Indirect indicators of warming such as borehole temperatures, snow cover, and glacier recession data, are in substantial agreement with the more direct indicators of recent warmth. Evidence such as changes in glacier length is useful since it not only provides qualitative support for existing meteorological data, but glaciers often exist in places too remote to support meteorological stations, the records of glacial advance and retreat often extend back further than weather station records, and glaciers are usually at much higher alititudes that weather stations allowing us more insight into temperature changes higher in the atmosphere.
Large-scale measurements of sea-ice have only been possible since the satellite era, but through looking at a number of different satellite estimates, it has been determined that Arctic sea ice has decreased between 1973 and 1996 at a rate of -2.8 +/- 0.3%/decade. Although this seems to correspond to a general increase in temperature over the same period, there are lots of quasi-cyclic atmospheric dynamics (for example the Arctic Oscillation) which may also influence the extent and thickness of sea-ice in the Arctic. Sea-ice in the Antarctic has shown very little trend over the same period, or even a slight increase since 1979. Though extending the Antarctic sea-ice record back in time is more difficult due to the lack of direct observations in this part of the world.
Are El Niños related to Global Warming?
El Niños are not caused by global warming. Clear evidence exists from a variety of sources (including archaeological studies) that El Niños have been present for hundreds, and some indicators suggest maybe millions, of years. However, it has been hypothesized that warmer global sea surface temperatures can enhance the El Niño phenomenon, and it is also true that El Niños have been more frequent and intense in recent decades. Recent climate model results that simulate the 21st century with increased greenhouse gases suggest that El Niño-like sea surface temperature patterns in the tropical Pacific are likely to be more persistent.
Is the hydrological cycle (evaporation and precipitation) changing?
Overall, land precipitation for the globe has increased by ~2% since 1900, however, precipitation changes have been spatially variable over the last century. Instrumental records show that there has been a general increase in precipitation of about 0.5-1.0%/decade over land in northern mid-high latitudes, except in parts of eastern Russia. However, a decrease of about -0.3%/decade in precipitation has occurred during the 20th century over land in sub-tropical latitudes, though this trend has weakened in recent decades. Due to the difficulty in measuring precipitation, it has been important to constrain these observations by analyzing other related variables. The measured changes in precipitation are consistent with observed changes in streamflow, lake levels, and soil moisture (where data are available and have been analyzed).
Northern Hemisphere annual snow cover extent has consistently remained below average since 1987, and has decreased by about 10% since 1966. This is mostly due to a decrease in spring and summer snowfall over both the Eurasian and North American continents since the mid-1980s. However, winter and autumn snow cover extent has shown no significant trend for the northern hemisphere over the same period.
Improved satellite data shows that a general trend of increasing cloud amount over both land and ocean since the early 1980s, seems to have reversed in the early 1990s, and total cloud amount of land and ocean now appears to be decreasing. However, there are several studies that suggest regional cloudiness, perhaps especially in the thick precipitating clouds has increased over the 20th century.
Is the atmospheric/oceanic circulation changing?
A rather abrupt change in the El Niño - Southern Oscillation behavior occurred around 1976/77 and the new regime has persisted. There have been relatively more frequent and presistent El Niño episodes rather than the cool La Niñas. This behavior is highly unusual in the last 120 years (the period of instrumental record). Changes in precipitation over the tropical Pacific are related to this change in the El Niño - Southern Oscillation, which has also affected the pattern and magnitude of surface temperatures. However, it is unclear as to whether this apparent change in the ENSO cycle is caused by global warming.
Is the climate becoming more variable or extreme?
On a global scale there is little evidence of sustained trends in climate variability or extremes. This perhaps reflects inadequate data and a dearth of analyses. However, on regional scales, there is clear evidence of changes in variability or extremes.
In areas where a drought or excessive wetness usually accompanies an El Niño, these dry or wet spells have been more intense in recent years. Other than these areas, little evidence is available of changes in drought frequency or intensity.
In some areas where overall precipitation has increased (ie. the mid-high northern latitudes), there is evidence of increases in the heavy and extreme precipitation events. Even in areas such as eastern Asia, it has been found that extreme precipitation events have increased despite total precipitation remaining constant or even decreasing somewhat. This is related to a decrease in the frequency of precipitation in this region.
Many individual studies of various regions show that extra-tropical cyclone activity seems to have generally increased over the last half of the 20th century in the northern hemisphere, but decreased in the southern hemisphere. It is not clear whether these trends are multi-decadal fluctuations or part of a longer-term trend.
Where reliable data are available, tropical storm frequency and intensity show no significant long-term trend in any basin. There are apparent decadal-interdecadal fluctuations, but nothing which is conlusive in suggesting a longer-term component.
Global temperature extremes have been found to exhibit no significant trend in interannual variability, but several studies suggest a significant decrease in intra-annual variability. There has been a clear trend to fewer extremely low minimum temperatures in several widely-separated areas in recent decades. Widespread significant changes in extreme high temperature events have not been observed.
There is some indication of a decrease in day-to-day temperature variability in recent decades.
How important are these changes in a longer-term context?
Paleoclimatic data are critical for enabling us to extend our knowledge of climatic variability beyond what is measured by modern instruments. Many natural phenomena are climate dependent (such as the growth rate of a tree for example), and as such, provide natural 'archives' of climate information. Some useful paleoclimate data can be found in sources as diverse as tree rings, ice cores, corals, lake sediments (including fossil insects and pollen data), speleothems (stalactites etc), and ocean sediments. Some of these, including ice cores and tree rings provide us also with a chronology due the nature of how they are formed, and so high resolution climate reconstruction is possible in these cases. However, there is not a comprehensive 'network' of paleoclimate data as there is with instrumental coverage, so global climate reconstructions are often difficult to obtain. Nevertheless, combining different types of paleoclimate records enables us to gain a near-global picture of climate changes in the past.
To continue reading about global warming and climate change click here!
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Over-consumption is a major cause of climate change. It also leaves many of us in debt. For more information on over-consumption and its effects on our wallets and the environment, check out these links:
New American Dream
Your Money or Your Life
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The Annapolis city government is a member of ICLEI
ICLEI is an international association of local governments and national and regional local government organizations that have made a commitment to sustainable development. More than 700 cities, towns, counties, and their associations worldwide comprise ICLEI's growing membership. ICLEI works with these and hundreds of other local governments through international performance-based, results-oriented campaigns and programs.
We provide technical consulting, training, and information services to build capacity, share knowledge, and support local government in the implementation of sustainable development at the local level. Our basic premise is that locally designed initiatives can provide an effective and cost-efficient way to achieve local, national, and global sustainability objectives.
ICLEI was founded in 1990 as the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives. The council was established when more than 200 local governments from 43 countries convened at our inaugural conference, the World Congress of Local Governments for a Sustainable Future, at the United Nations in New York.
Annapolis has been chosen by ICLEI as the host city for the 2009 National Conference on Climate Change.
During the past month...
The environment
I continue to promote O-27-07--legislation that will prohibit the retail distribution of plastic checkout bags within the city limits of Annapolis.
More than 100 billion plastic checkout bags are distributed by retail businesses annually. According to the US Environmental Protection Agency greater than 95 per cent are not recycled. Instead they end up in landfill or loose in the environment. They last for 500 to 1000 years! They just keep accumulating, endangering the lives of water fowl and other marine life.
This legislation is intended to provide additional improvement and protection of the Chesapeake Bay and our surrounding tributaries for future generations.
The legislation has been reported worldwide and is being considered by numerous other cities and counties. The legislation will come up for a final vote this Monday, November 19th. Be present as the vote is taken in City Council Chambers, 7:30 pm.
The legislation has strong support from the Chesapeake Bay Foundation, the Alice Ferguson Foundation, the Sierra Club of Anne Arundel County, the Alliance for Sustainable Communities, EarthEcho (the Cousteau family), the Audubon Society, Oceana, the Natural Resources Defense Council, the South River Federation, and the Severn River Association. To find out why this legislation is so important click here!
Traffic congestion
I co-introduced with Alderman Stankivic R-45-07 and R-46-07 requesting the State of Maryland conduct feasibility study of rail links between Washington and Annapolis and Baltimore and Annapolis as well as a rail link from Parole to the Historic District.
I attended a Baltimore Regional Transportation Board public hearing in Baltimore to express my concern with the BRTB's 2035 plan. (That plan proposes primarily with widening roads and freeways.) In my opinion, making it more convenient for people to drive will drastically increase the numbers of cars and will not deal with the real issue--the need for rail transit between Washington, Baltimore and Annapolis.
I believe we need adequate rail transportation and mobility so we can leave our cars at home or live without cars. Bicycle paths and more walkable sidewalks are needed. In some cases, better water transportation is to be encouraged.
I am considering a request to reduce the speed limit on Bay Ridge Road (between Hillsmere and Edgewood Road from 40 mph to 30 mph). It has become very difficult for bicyclists and pedestrians in along this stretch. What do you think? Send me your opinion: sam@aldermansam.com.
Public safety
Our fifth meeting of an ad-hoc committee to secure affordable housing for Annapolis police was held. The committee has brought forth a plan that will hopefully be included in the 2009 municipal budget.
This plan will help our Police Chief recruit additional police officers to fill the existing 23 vacant positions. The police officers participating in the program will be required to live within the Annapolis city limits.
The committee will continue to meet until the program is funded and all 23 vacant positions on the police force are filled.
Also, Alderman Dick Israel led several aldermen on a late-night tour of downtown bars for discussions with bar managers and on-duty police officers. I am especailly concerned with over-serving bar customers and serving underage individuals. Last month I held a special City Council work session with the Annapolis Alcoholic Control Board.
Alderman Israel and I will be pursuing changes in Maryland State law that will increase penalties for bars and restaurants that have repeated infractions of the law.
During the past month I have worked with the Department of Public Works to encourage BGE to install more than 20 new street lights in Watergate Village. Increased lighting is being sought in other Ward 7 locations including Fairwinds of Annapolis, Green Acres and other communities.
Racial reconciliation and healing
A sixth meeting of an ad hoc committee promoting private parochial scholarships for community housing youth was held at Annapolis Area Christian School. The group is seeking funding for scholarships to Annapolis Area Christian School, St. Anne's School, St. Mary's School and the Key School.
Discussions continue with the Anne Arundel Community Foundation to help organize a program for giving to the scholarship fund.
Listen to this week's city podcast!
November 8, 2007 (8:50) - This edition of the City of Annapolis podcast has information about the upcoming special election in Ward 2, the Mayor on a new transportation study and Economic Development Director Mike Miron talking about an award his office recently received.
Want to report a pothole or a street light that's out?
The Annapolis Department of Public Works is led by a very qualified staff. You can get information about how to report potholes. You can learn about the City's mosquito management program, get recycling hints, or find out about the many other services offered by the department by clicking here!
Now here's a thought!
used by permission
"There are two ways to get enough: one is to continue to accumulate more and more. The other is to desire less."
-G.K. Chesterton (1874-1936)
"Man has lost the capacity to foresee and to forestall. He will end by destroying the earth."
-Albert Schweitzer (1875-1965)
"What can become of him if he is in such bondage to the habit of satisfying the innumerable desires he has created for himself? He is isolated, and what concern has he with the rest of humanity? They have succeeded in accumulating a greater mass of objects, but the joy in the world has grown less.
-Feodor Dostoyevsky (1821-1881), The Brothers Karamazov
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